Instability Analysis and Decomposition of Output of Major Oilseeds Crops in Rajasthan and India

Aim: The study deals with analysis of instability of area production and productivity of major oilseeds in Rajasthan and India. It also includes calculation of sources of growth of production over the period of study. Area effect, yield effect and interaction effect for crop production were calculated.

Place and Duration: The time series data of thirty years, 1990-91 to 2019-20, was analyzed. The data were further divided into Three decades, period I(1990-91 to 1999-2000), period II (2000-01 to 2009-10) and period III (2010-11 to 2019-20). Area production and productivity of major oilseed crops (Rapeseed-mustard, groundnut and soybean) for all three decade in Rajasthan and India were analyzed.

Methodology: This paper deals with the analysis of instability in area production and productivity of major oilseed crops in Rajasthan and India. The Cuddy Della Vella Index has been used for instability analysis. It also includes the decomposition analysis to determine factors that were responsible for the change in production of the crops. The additive decomposition method has been used to determine area, yield and interaction effect.

Results: Calculations revealed that the magnitude of instability in Rajasthan during period II (2000-01 to 2009-10) remained high for all the selected crops. There was instability of 32.49 percent and 34.40 percent for area and production, respectively, while 13.34 percent of variation was found in productivity. In Rajasthan, the lowest instability was observed during period III (2010-11 to 2019-20) with variation of 7.44 percent, 9.47 percent and 6.62 percent for area production and productivity of groundnut. In India, the highest instability was during period II. The area of Rapeseed-mustard has shown the highest (17.72%) instability compared to the instability of the area of other crops. Variation of production and productivity of groundnut was recorded at 24.79 and 21.88 percent, respectively, which is highest among the selected crops. The decomposition analysis revealed that the area effect was a major source for the growth of production of oilseed in Rajasthan as compared to the yield effect and interaction effect. During period I (1990-91 to 1999-2000), the area effect for rapeseed mustard, groundnut and soybean was 68.08, 87.97 and 91.35 percent. In India, both area and yield effect have a major contribution to the growth of production. During period I, the yield effect (57.50 %) was responsible for growth of rapeseed-mustard production, while groundnut and soybean had a high contribution of area effect with magnitudes of 70.86 percent and 84 percent. Area effects for groundnut and soybean were 118.44 percent and 58.06 percent during period II, respectively. Area effect (42.90%) and yield effect (45.76%) were equally responsible for the growth of rapeseed-mustard. During period III, the yield effect for rapeseed-mustard and soybean was 101.34 percent and 257.7 percent, respectively, while the area effect (52.29 %) was responsible for growth in groundnut production.

Conclusion: It has been found that groundnut was the most stable crop in term of area production and productivity. The major source for the growth of production was area effect and Yield effect while interaction effect has least impact on production of crops.