Development and validation of a diabetic retinopathy risk prediction model for middle-aged patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus

Objectives: The study aims to establish a predictive nomogram of diabetic retinopathy(DR) for the middle-aged population with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM).

Methods: This retrospective study screened 931 patients with T2DM between 30 and 59 years of age from the 2011-2018 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey database. The development group comprised 704 participants from the 2011-2016 survey, and the validation group included 227 participants from the 2017-2018 survey. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model was used to determine the best predictive variables. The logistic regression analysis built three models: the full model, the multiple fractional polynomial (MFP) model, and the stepwise (stepAIC) selected model. Then we decided optimal model based on the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC). ROC, calibration curve, Hosmer-Lemeshow test, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to validate and assess the model. An online dynamic nomogram prediction tool was also constructed.

Results: The MFP model was selected to be the final model, including gender, the use of insulin, duration of diabetes, urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio, and serum phosphorus. The AUC was 0.709 in the development set and 0.704 in the validation set. According to the ROC, calibration curves, and Hosmer-Lemeshow test, the nomogram demonstrated good coherence. The nomogram was clinically helpful, according to DCA.

Conclusion: This study established and validated a predictive model for DR in the mid-life T2DM population, which can assist clinicians quickly determining who is prone to develop DR.