Potential Devastating Domino Effect: A Case Study of Msasa Industrial Area, Zimbabwe

Aims: To assess the likelihood of occurrence of domino effect in a group of neighbouring companies in Msasa Industrial area.

Study Design: A case study approach was used.

Place and Duration of Study: Msasa industrial area, Harare Zimbabwe between June 2011 and June 2012.

Methodology: Information was sought through interviews, questionnaires and observations from 15 companies in Msasa. The What If Analysis (WIA) was also used to postulate the potential upsets that may result in accidents. A semi qualitative approximate domino effect analysis procedure was used to simulate the likely sequence of an event after its initiation.

Discussion: In the cluster, domino effect was most likely to be initiated and propagated by fires (pool, flash, fireballs or jet), explosions (confined vapour cloud explosions (CVCE), boiling liquid expanding vapour explosions (BLEVE), vented explosions, vapour cloud explosions, and dust explosions) and toxic release with effects ranging from being catastrophic, critical, marginal or negligible. It was found that there has been no domino risk analysis and hence was a strong possibility of destruction of the entire industrial area and neighbouring residential areas in the case of the forecast domino accidents. Toxic and dust releases were most likely to contaminate neighbouring residence leading to exposed toxic substance for long periods after the release.

Conclusion: Msasa industrial area may pose a serious domino effect risk, hence the need to make it mandatory for domino effect analysis studies in industrial areas and sharing safety information with neighbouring companies and communities.