Electricity Demand and Supply Scenario Analysis for Nigeria Using Long Range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP)

Electricity demand and supply forecasts are important tools for determining solutions to the problems in the electricity sector such as power outages. The Long Range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) modelling tool was used to project electricity demand and supply for a target year 2040. Three scenarios namely; Business as Usual (BAU), Energy Conservation (EC) and Renewable Energy (REN) were generated. The three scenarios were analyzed based on electricity demand and supply, environmental impacts and costs. The electricity demand in the target year of 2040 for the BAU and REN scenarios increased to 283.6 billion kWh, while that of the EC scenario increased to 233.8 billion kWh from 35.9 billion kWh in the base year (2010). The EC scenario has the least capital cost (44.2 billion USD less than the BAU scenario) and fixed costs (15 billion USD less than the BAU scenario), the EC scenario also has the second largest quantity of Green House Gas (GHG) emissions (1,004.8 million tons of CO2eq). The REN scenario has the least GHG emissions among the three scenarios (114.79 million tons of CO2eq) but is the most expensive scenario to implement because of its high capital (56.3 billion USD more the BAU) and fixed costs (4.1 billion USD more than the BAU scenario). As a result of the economic challenges faced by Nigeria, the EC scenario was found to be the most realistic path in providing uninterrupted power supply.